NASA’s Asteroid Grand Challenge

Trillium supported NASA HQ to develop a number of ‘grand challenges’ in response to a request by the White House’s Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP). The challenge chosen from this process was the Asteroid Grand Challenge (AGC):

“to find all the asteroid threats to humanity and to know what to do about them.” 

Over the four year duration of the challenge, Trillium supported NASA’s Planetary Defense Co-Ordination Office (PDCO) to administer and develop revolutionary new approaches to tackling complex systemic problems, by engaging new constituencies, such as the maker movement, game designers, technology companies, Hollywood producers and data scientists - ultimately giving birth to FDL and raising public awareness of both the threat and opportunity presented by asteroids.

Nasa's Asteroid Grand Challenge

The Chelyabinsk Asteroid: 30 Hiroshima Atomic Bombs

  1. The Approach (03:20 UTC): A 20-meter asteroid enters Earth’s atmosphere at a shallow 18-degree angle. Because it approaches from the direction of the sun, it remains invisible to ground-based optical telescopes until the moment of entry.

  2. The Superbolide (T + 13s): Compressing the air in front of it, the asteroid transforms into a “superbolide.” It achieves maximum brightness at an altitude of approximately 23 km—briefly outshining the sun and emitting a blinding flash of light visible from 100 km away.

  3. The Airburst: Under immense atmospheric pressure, the asteroid’s structure fails, causing it to disintegrate in a massive kinetic explosion. This “airburst” releases the energy of 30 Hiroshima-sized bombs.

  4. The Shockwave (T + 2m): While the light reached the city of Chelyabinsk instantly, the cylindrical blast wave took nearly three minutes to arrive. It shattered windows across 7,200 buildings, causing over 1,500 indirect injuries from flying glass.

    Estimated Diameter,~18–20 meters
    Initial Mass,“~11,000 tonnes”
    Entry Speed,“~19 km/s (68,400 km/h)”
    Energy Yield,~440–500 kilotons of TNT
    Explosion Altitude,23.3 km (14.5 miles)
    Impact Type,Stony asteroid (Ordinary Chondrite)

FDL Director James Parr explains asteroid 3D shape modeling to NASA Astronaut Cady Coleman at the White House.

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